Monday, July 26, 2010

Trades for 23-07-2010

Trades:

  1. -548 Gati @ 85.50
  2. -644 IBReal 166.50
  3. -397 India Info @ 100.25
  4. -290 Infinite @ 172.50
  5. -877 Provogue @ 59
  6. -190 Religare @ 412
  7. -801 Thomas Cook @ 69

As I had said on thursday that I was intending to exit lots of trading position, I have done the same and exited almost 75% longs. Though I feel market may go down I have no intentions of shorting, rather I would try to buy lower and sell on rise.

My problems with the new laptop still continues. The laptop still crashed randomly, and it has been creating lots of problems. I did go into the details of the crash this time and I now believe that the processor is faulty. I really don’t know how to put this up with HP. I am sure they are not going to believe that a brand new laptop has a faulty CPU. So i am running few CPU stress tests to see if it gives me anything. Again I back with only one machine and trading life is going to be very tough :)

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Trades for 22-07-2010

Today’s Trades:

  1. +107 Utv Software @ 465 (may add more confidence is high)
  2. +112 Blue Star @ 445
  3. -182 Gati Ltd.@ 76
  4. -151 IDFC @ 190

Market has surprised all today and went up when Dow was substantially down. Nifty is moving very close to the target I had in mind since last few months. I had a view that we will touch 5500 before any meaningful correction and we are very close to it. At the time of writing this Dow is up 200+ so we will surely have a gap up tomorrow. I intend to exit lot of trading positions tomorrow as I feel anything above 5500 is little dangerous, though I don’t think that the market will fall much before the expiry.

I will trimming lot of positions tomorrow my own positions and the ones mentioned on the blog. But that doesn’t mean I will not take new ones :) I am a trader and it is not in my blood to remain without position. Only thing I try is to remain a little light when I feel correction is around the corner.

On a separate note, the BSOD (Blue Screen of Death) has restarted with my new laptop. I am really at a loss why this would be happening. I am trying to solve the issue as reformatting again is very difficult because I would have to call all the software vendors again. Till this doesn’t get solved I am shutting down the laptop every now and then instead of making it sleep.

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Finally 100% Operational

Finally, finally i am back to my 100% operational status. All software installed on the new laptop and everything working normal or i shud say better and faster than normal :)

But this was not without some road blocks. So here is the full story:

Since this was a new laptop (DM4 1024TX)and came with Windows 7 64Bit preinstalled i figured let me give it a shot. I know from what I have read that all 64Bit Windows have some bugs especially related to drivers, but I thought things would be better. So I went ahead and installed Windows 7 Ultimate 64Bit, things were running smoothly but after sometime windows would not wake up from sleep. It would just restart and this was random. I tried to solve the problem and went through the crash minidump and even did some googling. After spending one full day I came to conclusion that it was a driver issue indeed. Now none of the drivers I installed were 3rd party, all of them were from HP and still the laptop kept on crashing randomly. I was pretty pissed that a brand new laptop would crash like this. And to top it all HP guys don’t even put up the correct WiFi drivers on their support site. This laptop comes with Broadcom 43224AG WLAN adapter but the support site gives drivers for Intel and Atheros WLAN adapters. A doubt a regular user would be able to figure this out.

So finally yesterday I decided to go back to 32Bit and things are pretty smooth since then. All software installed by today evening and now I am up and running.

Now about the market, I should be back to normal trading from tomorrow and back to tweeting as well. There is one trade which I would like to mention i.e., the pair trade of United Spirit and Balaji Dist. As of today’s closing I am making 11,480 in this trade and if I tender the Balaji Dist shares under buy back then I stand to make 80,581. Now this is a big anomaly, one can never make such money, market is always ahead of individuals and I feel there is something which I don’t know. So to be on the safer side I am planning to exit this trade. Because from experience I know that when on paper you see a big opportunity, there is always something wrong, there is always a googly.

Some new ideas have also come up for trading and I intend to implement them from tomorrow, will elaborate more later if they click. Till tomorrow then…………

Monday, July 19, 2010

Back After a Long Break

Sorry for not posting anything for last 15 days. Too many things were happening and I couldn’t get the time to post. I was sick, then my daughter fell sick and I had some Income Tax related work which I had to complete on urgent basis. Even my trading was way slower than the usual pace.

Anyways, now I am back and should be back to normal from today onwards. I finally bought a new laptop to replace the one which got spoilt. The new one I bought is a HP DM4 1024TX. I paid a little extra by going for this model, I could have gone for Lenovo or Dell for the same config I would have paid 4-5K less but what attracted me towards this laptop was the looks, weight (its under 2kg) and the battery life (5Hrs+). I also got an Ipad from abroad during last 15 days, so it was a tech shopping week for me :)

I will put up an exclusive post on Ipad later, but let me say this it is a fantastic gadget. Don’t know how productive it can be in ones life but its very easy to use. My daughter who is not even 4 years old, easily plays movies, watches photos and enjoys gaming on the Ipad.

On the market front I badly missed a chance to exit Nissan Copper around 50s. It has crashed to 40 now. Other than that not much regret on the trading part.

Will be putting up an updated google sheet and a market post today evening.

Monday, July 5, 2010

How I Recovered from a Crashed Laptop

I just realized that I haven’t done a single Tech post since last 2 weeks, so I thought I will share my experience of recovering from the crashed laptop. As I have been saying since last few days, I lost one of my crucial laptop for daily work 1 week back. Within 24hrs I was able to transfer the whole system on another machine. The delay mainly occurred because my backups were at home and the laptop crashed while I was in office, so I had to wait till I got back home to restore my backup.

First and foremost the only and only reason I could recover so fast was due to backups. I can never stress enough on how crucial it is to take backups especially if your livelihood depends on computers. My current backup plan is as follows:

  1. Daily full backup of my 3 machines (2 Laptops / 1 Desktop at home) at night
  2. Live backup of “My Documents” using one of the online backup service.

I religiously backup my 3 machines every night using Acronis on a 1TB desktop hard drive. Currently the drive is connected to the desktop and shared over the network. I would prefer to have NAS but its little expensive and I feel overkill for 3 machines. For live backup I use Dropbox which gives me 2GB of online space for free. This system has served me well in bad times.

But crashes are never predictable and never easy to recover. Even though I had full and working backup, it wasn’t easy to use it. Due to the copy protected software I could not just copy everything on another machine and use it. None of the software would work. So I decided to use a virtualization software and use the backup from acronis to restore to a VM (Virtual Machine). I used Vmware 7 to create a VM and restore my backup but after the restoring the machine wouldn’t boot up. It kept on giving me BSOD (Blue Screen Of Death) with error 0x0000007B which means un-mountable boot partition. After searching on the net I found that this was due to conflict in IDE drivers and is common when you have SATA drive. There were few workarounds to this problem but all were little complicated.

So finally I decided to pull out the hard disk from the laptop and plug it in the desktop. A few restarts and all was working fine. All copy protected programs were also running fine. So I am guessing they are bound to the hard disk serial and not the mother board.

Moral of the story: Always backup but don’t be sure that you will be able to use them :). Have a backup plan in case backups fail.

Update: Got the quotation from the HP service centre. They want me to pay 28k for repairing a 2 year old laptop :) Good luck with that HP………

Sunday, July 4, 2010

Trades for 01/07 & 02/07

Posting this pretty late as I was occupied with lots of other stuff and wasn’t keeping too well. No trades were there for 02/07 as I didn’t go to office at all.

Trades for 01-07-2010:

  1. +644 India Bull Real @ 155.2
  2. +859 Nissan Copper @ 58.20

RBI has finally raised the rates, now one has to see if that’s good or bad because many people were expecting a 50BPS hike instead of 25BPS. But it is also possible that in the regular meeting on 27th July RBI may hike another 25BPS. I would be a buyer in all the real estate stocks if there is a crash on Monday. Again Monday I might not be trading as it has been announced a “bandh” by the political parties.

This is turning out to be a one really long weekend.

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Trades for 30-06-2010

Today’s trades:

  1. +730 Gati @ 68.50
  2. +877 Provouge @ 57
  3. -206 Astra Micro @ 66.50
  4. -63 Religare @ 405

What a day today. Had lot of fun in intraday trading, and our market seems to be invincible. Amazing recovery and I think this move will take us to 5350-70 range, after that one has to be careful. Nothing much to add except I am getting stock ideas by the dozen now a days :)

Still no news for my HP laptop which I think is bad news. I just hope I don’t have to buy a new one. More than the money involved it’s a painful job to get all the software vendors to come and install their software on the laptop. I have at least 5 software on that laptop which are copy protected and which are machine specific.

Till tomorrow then…………….

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Trades for 29-06-2010

Today’s trades:

  1. +1414 Vimta Labs @ 35.35
  2. +836 Kolte Patil @ 59.75

I haven’t been able to update my blog on time since last few days as I don’t have the laptop using which I used to update the blog while travelling. The laptop which I have currently has a very weak battery which doesn’t give me enough time to finish all work and update the blog. But soon things will change as I am getting a new battery for this laptop and the other laptop should be back from service centre and I am getting a new gadget soon.

As the situation is right now world markets are deep in red Europe is 3-4% down and USA is also 2% down. We are surely having a gap down tomorrow, hopefully 5180-5200 levels should give good support for the market.

Monday, June 28, 2010

Trades for 28-06-2010

Today’s trades:

  1. -2237 Balaji Dist @ 46.05
  2. -76 Dhanlakshmi Bank @ 188.25

I haven’t entered any fresh trade in last 2 days as I feel market may fall. I am bullish on reality sector for this month and I am waiting for a good opportunity to get in. Had a good chance today to enter reality stocks but missed it. Stocks that I am bullish are DLF, HDIL, Unitech & IBull Real Est.

Friday, June 25, 2010

Trades for last 2 days

Finally back on the blog. I couldn’t update the blog since last two days because of several reasons. First and foremost my one laptop which was sick finally died, and has gone to repairs. So restoring everything on another machine and getting up to speed was little slow due to expiry day yesterday. Other reasons were personal like had some occasion at home, too much rains and got stuck also being expiry week there was lot of rollover work.

Here are the trades of last 2 days:

  1. +2237 Balaji Dist @ 44.70    (23-06-2010)
  2. +801 Thomas Cook @ 62.4 (22-06-2010)

After getting into Balaji Dist trade I found out that it was merging into United Breweries and even the ratio was fixed. So i feel on its own there is no movement possible in Balaji Dist and it will move with United Breweries. Due to this fact I intend to exit this trade today or tomorrow. At 10.45 today its quoting at 45.75 which still gives me 1Rs for a wrong trade :)

My plan to start FII options trading analysis may not be possible over the weekend due to shortage of machine. Lets see how things pan out over the weekend.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Trades for 22-06-2010

Due to other work commitments I couldn’t trade much today. Trading portfolio has fared well compared to general market. Missed booking some Dhanlakshmi Bank at 180, hopefully will get a chance tomorrow.

I am planning to put up FII Nifty options trading analysis from next week. I feel lately FII’s have started taking big bets on Nifty options and tracking the same could yield good results.

Till tomorrow then…………………

Monday, June 21, 2010

Trades for 21-06-2010

Today’s trades:
  1. -156 Future Capital @ 200
Finally I have been able to create a google sheet which will have all the trades and a summary with current market price. This sheet will also show invested capital, market value of the portfolio and current M-T-M profit. I hope this helps in visualizing the trading portfolio.

Trades for 18-06-2010

Today’s trades :

  1. -75 Rel Power @ 176.75

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Trades for 17-06-2010

Today’s trades:

  1. +253 Religare @ 395.50
  2. -555 TV18 @ 90 (Had bought this on 14th @ 90 but forgot to mention in the blog – though i had twitted it)
  3. -100 5200PE June @ 30

Blogger Labels: Tv18,5200PE,Religare

    Wednesday, June 16, 2010

    Trades for 16-06-2010

    Here are trades for today:

    1. +826 Astra Micro @ 60.50
    2. +306 Dhanlakshmi Bank @ 163.25
    3. -156 Future Capital @ 177
    4. -50 5200PE June @ 55.25

    While booking 25% in Nifty Put I realized that I can’t follow my profit booking strategy with 3 lots. So hence forth I will trading in 4 lots of Nifty.

    Tuesday, June 15, 2010

    Trades for 15-06-2010

    Today I wasn’t able to update my trades on twitter in real time due to twitter being overloaded. Anyways following are trades for today:

    1. -77 Rel Power @ 172
    2. +530 India Infoline @ 94.25
    3. -133 India Info @ 97.25
    4. +290 Infinite @ 172.25
    5. -77 Rel Power @ 178
    6. -77 Rel Power @ 179.50
    7. +150 5200PE June @ 44

    For all options that I buy or sell I will assume that I will be paying margin so as to control the size of my trade. Even if I am buyer of an option I will consider that I have paid the margin even though the Stock Exchanges don’t levy any margin. The margin usually varies from time to time but I will take is at Rs 350 per nifty so my Rs. 50,000 exposure will allow me to trade 150 (3 Lots) of nifty at a time.

    I am still in the process of creating the Google sheet for aggregating my trades. From what I have already tried it seems that it may not be very easy to go with Google sheet, in case i am not able to automate things with Google sheet then i will go with Web based Excel sheet. I should be able to figure out something by tomorrow.

    Trades for 14-06-2010

    As promised I will start disclosing my trades from today. But before I do that I would like to have some standards through which I can decide the amount I invest in each trade. After giving it considerable thought i have decided on Rs, 50,000 exposure per trade in delivery segment and Rs. 50,000 of margin exposure if I am doing it in Futures & Options segment. There might be times where I would be very confident on a trade, in such cases it would be double the regular amount, and I will indicate the same on my tweets. So here goes the first post on my trades:

    1. + 625 Future Capital Holding Ltd @ 160 (this was a double confidence trade which i didn’t mention in my tweet since i had not formulated a plan on the amount of exposure i will be publishing in this blog)
    2. +302 IDFC @ 165.25
    3. +306 Reliance Power @ 163.25

    In near future I will try to create a Google sheet where all the trades will be tabulated and summarized so that one can check M-T-M profit / loss and position on near real time basis. I will also try to post this daily positions by early evening so that all get a chance to review it before end of day. Since this is the first post and I had to formulate few standards I posted it so late.

    Before I close this post let me clarify few things. First I would be taking exposure of much more value or lesser value compared to what’s disclosed here but the confidence proportion will remain linked. I in no way am recommending anyone to follow or trade behind me and if anyone does so then its at your own discretion and risk. I would not be attaching a standard disclosure to all my posts but since this is the first post I will attach a disclosure.

    DISCLOSURE: Stok Guru’s Diary is a blog only for information and education purpose. I will be having positions in all stocks recommended here thus having vested interest in the same. Any reader is requested to do his/her own research and/or consult a certified financial planner before making decisions with respect to buying and selling stocks or derivatives. This blog and it's owner do not take any responsibility for the views expressed in here and any consequences including financial, legal or otherwise resulting from actions based on such views.

    Blogger Labels: Future Capital Holdings Ltd.,FCH,IDFC,Reliance Power

    Wednesday, June 9, 2010

    Quick Update

    I have started this blog to disclose my every day trades and yet I haven’t posted a single trade of mine. I am just taking little time to get used to blogging and I intend to start blogging my position from 14th June 2010. I am also available on twitter and will update my trades there also in real time. Twitter handle is stok_guru. I will be active on twitter only after 14th.

    Blogger Labels: stok_guru

    Tuesday, June 8, 2010

    Reliance Netconnect+ v/s Tata Photon+

    As I mentioned in my last post, I was travelling to Baroda over the weekend and had the opportunity to use both the high speed data cards during the journey and in Baroda. Here is my observation:

    • While in the train both used to disconnect every now and then but what I observed was Netconnect+ only disconnected when I was moving from a low speed network to high speed network while downgrading there was no disconnection. Photon+ disconnected randomly and more frequently.
    • The speed again Netconnect+ was much better than Photon+ during the journey and while in Baroda.

    My conclusion is that Reliance Netconnect+ is far better than Photon+ while in Mumbai and even while travelling. Only place where Photon+ would score better is that it has many more cities under high speed coverage than Netconnect+. Again this is what I gather from their marketing material and not something which I have cross checked. So if the city that one is travelling has high speed Reliance network then Netconnect+ would be my choice of connectivity.

    Blogger Labels: Netconnect+,Photon+,data card

    Saturday, June 5, 2010

    My Machines (Second Wives)

    Well this is a first for me….blogging from a running train :). This weekend I am travelling to Baroda from Mumbai to attend a cousins wedding. Right now I am sitting in Shatabdhi Express and blogging away, connected to the internet thru Reliance Netconnect+. I have heard lots of nasty things about all products from Reliance Communication but I have to say their broadband wireless service has never let me down. I own both Hi-Speed wireless connections available in Mumbai Reliance / Tata and I have to say from my experience Reliance is miles ahead of Tata in this regard. My experience with Tata Photon+ has been horrible in Mumbai, very bad speed (never exceeds 300kbps) and frequent disconnections if I am travelling more than 60Km/h. Reliance Netconnect+ gives me consistent high speed (1mbps+) and never disconnects. This is the first time I am taking both my data cards for a spin out of Mumbai, will blog about the experience once I am back.

    This post is to elaborate on the machines that I use for my day to day life. First I will start with the desktops, following are the configuration of the desktops:

    1. Quad Core 2.9Ghz / 4GB Ram / 320GB*4 SATA Hard disk in RAID 5 / Nvidia GTX 260 / 22” Samsung LCD / 19” LG LCD and the regular stuff.
    2. Quad Core 2.9Ghz / 4GB Ram / 320GB Hard disk / Onboard Graphics / 22” Samsung LCD / 17” LG LCD / Tv Tuner Card and regular stuff.

    Many of you might be wondering why such a high end configuration in one of the system, the reason is simple, I am an avid gamer and almost always play all the latest games. So the first machine is my gaming / trading rig. The first machine usually runs my 2 trading terminal for NSE / BSE and a few Remote Desktop sessions. The second machines runs a copy of falcon, the data streaming application of falcon and TV (mostly tuned to CNBC).

    My Laptops:

    1. TC4400 – Core2Duo 2.2Ghz / 2GB Ram / 80GB Hard disk / 12” Wacom Enabled Active Screen (no touch) and regular stuff
    2. DV2601TX – Core2Duo 1.5Ghz / 3GB Ram / 120GB Hard disk / 14” Screen

    The tablet that I use is now almost 3.5 years old and due for a replacement but I haven’t found any other tablet that I like. The one that I actually like is not available in India (Lenovo X201T). The second is fairly new (just about 2 years) and is usually attached to a 17” LCD when I am in office. The tablet is used for browsing the internet, tracking my portfolio, staying in touch with instant messengers, email and all work related to the internet. The second laptop connected with an external LCD usually has Newswire18 terminal Aspen Graphics and falcon running. I also have 2 more machined running in background which have the NSE Server and Reuters terminal but both of this are redirected to my 2 desktops using Remote Desktop so that I can use all the software on my screen.

    My office infrastructure:

    1. 3 Internet connections -- MTNL / TATA / Local Cable. All internet connections have inbound VPN capabilities
    2. 3 Leased Lines + Routers -- BSE / NSE / Head Office
    3. 1 Online 6KVA Ups – Provides 8 Hrs backup time to all my office machines (12 of them)

    I have such a setup that all my internets are configured in a round robin setup so there is automatic switch over in case one fails. My trading is always done through the leased line and never through the internet as I feel lease lines provide far better speed and reliability. I have backup connectivity 2 both the exchanges through my head office leased line.

    That’s my setup and all these have been procured / designed by myself. I have even programmed the routers that connect me to my head office. I also have a dedicated old laptop connected to the internet 24x7 running torrent client / mail server / backup server / VPN connectivity etc… but that will have to wait for another post.

    Till tomorrow then…………….

    Friday, June 4, 2010

    My Trading Style

    As I mentioned in my first post this blog is mainly about my trades and thoughts on Indian Stock Market. I will be disclosing what I do on day to day basis on this blog, but before that I would like all of my readers to know my method of trading and style of trading.

    I am NOT a technical analyst. I CAN NOT read charts and nor can I identify patterns. But this does not mean i don’t believe in TA. It’s a good method but in my experience i have never seen anyone making it big in stock market only on TA. (I have been in the market since 1992 – so that’s a long time for this conclusion). I feel if one knows TA then one can get a better entry and exit.

    I have been trading in the market since 1992 and one method that has worked consistently for me is following --- Always follow what big people are doing. This is difficult to do as one may not get the right information at the right time but over a period of time I have developed good contacts in the market through which I get good information. This method has helped me multiply my net worth at least 25 times in last 18 years. Most of the rise in my net worth has come from investments (buying and holding for more than 1 year) and not trading, but to invest one has to have the pulse of the market which can only be gained by trading.

    Now this does not mean I only do trading on information. Over last many years I have developed a knack for reading ticks. I do lot of intraday trading purely on reading ticks. Another style of trading is the quarterly results trading. In this style I gather the estimates of top 200 companies quarterly results from various institutional reports and since I have access to 2 different news sources (Reuters / NewsWire18), I can actually trade on the result announcements and it does give good opportunities.

    I also do lot of trading in options (mostly Nifty), and very moderate trading in futures as i also believe, like great Buffett, that these are weapons of mass destruction.

    I usually don’t follow stop loss or nor do I have a stop loss when I enter a trade but I wouldn’t advice this to anyone unless you know what you are doing. So most of the time when I disclose a trade I have taken, I will not mention a stop loss. If you want to follow me then do so at your own risk and do have appropriate stop loss. In case some trades don’t work out the way they should then I am never hesitant to book loss and will also disclose the same.

    I usually trade with large number of stocks in my trading portfolio. It’s not uncommon to find more than 100+ stocks in my trading portfolio in a good trending bull market. So it is possible that one may find it overwhelming with the number of stocks that I trade. I will try to point out best of the lot every now and then.

    Well that in general is how I trade. Any Questions and Comments are welcome.

    Till next time then………………

     

    Blogger Labels: Trading Style

    Thursday, June 3, 2010

    My Setup

    Hi I never got started with blogging since the idea was formed in my head, but now i have decided to blog seriously and so I am hopping that things would move forward from now on.

    Since I will be talking about Indian Stock Market and my passion of technology, I thought I would first let everyone know my setup. Here is the list of machines & gadgets that I use:

    The above mentioned machines are connected to 2 Samsung 22” Lcds, 1 LG 19” Lcd and 2 LG 17” Lcds. So all in all i have 7 screens to work with including the laptop displays. I use only 1 keyboard and mouse to control all the machines and one dedicated wireless keyboard (Logitech K350) is attached to my tablet. I will elaborate more on each machine and gadget in a separate weekend post.

    The Software I use for trading:

    I use many other software for day to day work but the above mentioned ones are the bare minimum required for daily trading. I will post a photo of my trading desk so as one can visualize it.

     

    Questions & Comments are most welcome.

     

    Blogger Labels: DV2601TX,TC4400,Indian Stock Market,Tablet,TyTn II,K350,Falcon,Reliable Software,Aspen Graphics,Reuters,NewsWire18,BOLT,NEATOP,NEATCM